University of New Hampshire . Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Really stop reading. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. 4. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. In their . In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). In communities . If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. 5. But it's still indicative of widespread support. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Arapahoe County. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. 12. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. 6. All other 21 counties voted Republican. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Jeff. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. . Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. It is easy to gloss over this. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Here's why. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. i.e. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Do you know this baby? If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. 2023 BBC. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! What results did you discover? The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. 2016 Election (1135) That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. (Sorry, not sorry.) Trump won the other 18 counties. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. hide caption. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Republicans have paid some attention. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Outstanding. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. What are your thoughts on this article? Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. It's the wrong question. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. The divisions were everywhere. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. (subject to censorship). This county voted with the popular vote each time. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Until this year. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Want to dive deeper? "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? But that's no longer the case. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. It almost became religious.". The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Yes, another Hillsborough! "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Read about our approach to external linking. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. 3. Trump gave them hope. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). In 2020, a single. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. 8. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. "They followed through the whole four years. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat.
